Mar 3rd 2020
Key Takeaways
• Lindt and Mars Wrigley both increases online sales by 92% year-over-year
• Pickup and delivery sales of chocolate candy were fairly comparable in the weeks leading up to Valentine’s Day, but in the final week before Valentine’s Day, February 14, pickup orders shot up.
Valentine’s Day 2020 — if you somehow missed all the social media posts, stores filled with pink, and flowers — has come and gone. As with every other year, chocolate was purchased, flowers were given, and expensive dinners were had. According to a prediction from The National Retail Federation about $27.4 billion was likely spent this past Valentine’s Day by love birds all over the country, with over $2.4 billion spent on candy alone. When it comes to Valentine’s Day candy, chocolate is easily the most popular category. To see how chocolate sales were affected by the holiday, Edison Trends analyzed over 6,500 online transactions in the US.
Figure 1a: Chart shows estimated year-over-year change in online spending on chocolate candy comparing January 15, 2020 - February 16, 2020 with January 15, 2019 - February 15, 2019, according to Edison Trends. This analysis is based on over 6500 transactions from Walmart, Target, Instacart, Shipt, Peapod, and Costco.
Roses are red, violets are blue, spend on Valentine’s chocolate was up this year too. While some chocolate brands grew more than others, there were no losers in year-over-year online spend. Looking at customer spending on chocolate candy the month before Valentine's Day through Valentine's weekend, Ferrero brands saw the biggest increase, at 247%. Lindt and Mars Wrigley brands came in second, both with a 92% increase; Hershey grew 76%, and Nestle 23%.
Figure 1b: Chart shows estimated online spend on chocolate candy from Hershey, Mars Wrigley, Nestle, Lindt, and Ferrero, comparing online sales from January 15, 2019 - February 16, 2019 to January 15, 2020 - February 16, 2020, according to Edison Trends. This analysis is based on over 6500 transactions from Walmart, Target, Instacart, Shipt, Peapod, and Costco. The highest daily value was set to 100, and all other values were scaled accordingly.
As Figure 1b shows, online spending on chocolate candy via grocery brands including Walmart, Target, Intstacart and others was significantly higher in 2020 than in 2019. However, there are some key similarities between the two years. Online spending on chocolate candy from top manufacturers peaked the day before Valentine's Day in both 2019 and 2020, and dropped sharply after the holiday. In 2019, customers spent 158% more on February 13th than they had on the average day during January 15-28; in 2020, they spent 187% more. Also interesting, this year online spending on chocolate started trending up just slightly several weeks before Valentine’s Day--perhaps in time for children and friends that celebrate the holiday earlier than romantic partners.
Figure 2: Chart shows estimated online spend on chocolate candy from Hershey, Mars Wrigley, Nestle, Lindt, and Ferrero, comparing pickup and delivery orders from January 15, 2020 - February 16, 2020, according to Edison Trends. This analysis is based on over 6500 transactions from Walmart, Target, Instacart, Shipt, Peapod, and Costco. The highest daily value was set to 100, and all other values were scaled accordingly.
Online grocery pickup and delivery has become incredibly popular over the last few years, so naturally, customers chose to include Valentine’s Day chocolates in their orders for convenience. While customers spent similar amounts on chocolate for pickup vs delivery leading up to Valentine's week, the final week before the event saw a large jump in pickup order spending. Curiously, the peak for pickup spending (February 12) hit sooner than that for delivery spending (February 13); it was also 32% larger.
Chocolate manufacturers and CPG brands planning their Valentine’s Day campaigns for next year will need to plan their online strategy around peak purchasing times to ensure they don’t miss out on these increasingly online shoppers.
As the market evolves, we will continue to stay on top of the latest trends. To learn more about how Edison Trends can help your business, contact us at bizdev@edison.tech. For more up-to-date insights in the e-commerce space, be sure to subscribe to our newsletter, and follow us on Twitter at @EdisonTrends.
*The data shown is based on a sample of anonymized and aggregated e-receipts from millions of consumers in the United States.